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"Everyone talks about the weather, but no one can do anything about
it".
This is fairly accurate for weather, but is it true for climate? Climate
is not just past weather, but it is a long-term average of weather and
weather patterns.
The sun and the earth's orbit seasonally influence both weather and climate;
sunspots have an 11 year cycle. Other influences that have long-term effects
are: volcanic eruptions, changes in the distribution of sea-ice and snow,
asteroids hitting the earth and increasing carbon dioxide (CO2)
from burning carbon based fuels. Molecules of CO2
absorb energy much like a greenhouse traps heat from the sun. The more
CO2 in the atmosphere, the more warming
occurs. CO2 in the atmosphere has been increasing dramatically
over the past 100 years and unless the increase slows or stops, we can
conclude that the earth will become warmer in the future.
Tree rings and fossils can be used to offer us insight into the patterns
of climate change but how can we predict what will happen to the climate
in the future? The earth is far too big and complex to use as a laboratory,
we must resort to using a mathematical representation or model to simulate
it. Millions of years would be needed to calculate the behavior of the
atmosphere by hand. Ultra fast computers that perform thousands of billions
of operations per second are used to perform these calculations. However,
computer models cannot perfectly simulate the weather or the climate.
The models are accurate for some predictions, for example, deserts are
geographically where they are predicted, but the models are limited. Current
models cannot predict California's total winter rainfall. Scientists are
constantly refining and improving the models so that better predictions
can be made as gases like CO2 continue to have a profound influence
on our climate.
This is the fifth presentation in this year's Science
on Saturday lecture series. The series is co-hosted by LLNL's Science
& Technology Education Program and Sigma Xi.
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